3.3. Comparison with Observation
Bob: You'll wind up with dozens of parameters, do you realize that?
Alice: I do, and yes, that may present us with significant problems.
But now it is my turn to say: what else can we do? But I can say
more. First of all, any globular cluster simulation already requires
you to choose dozens of parameters. There is the choice of initial
model for the density distribution, if we assume the simplest case of
isotropy. Then there is the choice of mass spectrum. And for the
primordial binaries you have to give a prescription for the initial
distribution function, as a function of mass ratios, separation and
eccentricity.
Bob: And a prescription for the tidal field, which can be time dependent.
And perhaps you'd like to take into account disk shocking, when the
cluster passes through the galactic plane. Yes, I know, there are
many numbers you have to specify already. And these may well be
different for different globular clusters.
Alice: Exactly, that is my point. If you can make detailed realistic
models for a number of different globular clusters, you have to provide
all those initial conditions, and vary them until you get good fits
with the observations. So the situation will not be much worse if you
add a handful of parameters modeling the physical uncertainties. And
the good thing is, a parameter describing the outcome of common envelope
evolution, for example, can be expected to be the same for different
clusters, at least in first approximation. So the more clusters you
model, the less these extra parameters will cause problems.
Even so, it still seems worrisome to fit dozens of parameters to one
set of observations. There is this nice quote about John von Neumann,
who certainly knew how to use computers to fit data. He used to say:
"with four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make
him wiggle his trunk."
Bob: It just shows that globular clusters are more complicated than
elephants.
Alice: I don't think von Neumann would have agreed. But it all depends
on the accuracy of the available data, and most importantly, upon the
lack of degeneracy in the types of data available. And this brings me
to my second point. If we would just try to fit density profiles and
velocity dispersions, we would be hopelessly lost. The only thing
that can save us is detailed observations of specific types of stars,
such as binaries of different types. In that way, we can hope to
obtain more independent constraints than there are independent initial
conditions.
Bob: Are you thinking of X-ray binaries and binary pulsars? Given the
many hundreds of such X-ray sources that have been found in galactic
globular clusters, they can help constrain quite a few parameters
already. And similarly, the wealth of pulsars that is being
discovered in globulars is constantly growing as well.
Alice: Yes, but I am also thinking about more normal binaries. If
future observations can pin down more of the parameters of the current
population of binaries, we still will have to search around in
parameter space to find the original distribution, but at least that
will constrain the uncertainty quite a bit. Primordial binaries
provide the largest number of free parameters in setting up a
realistic set of initial conditions for a cluster evolution, I bet.
Bob: That is right. And yes, the observations are improving. Also, I
don't expect to have a working kitchen sink code any time soon. I fully
trust the observers to have quite a bit more data in hand by the time my
code will work and is debugged.
Alice: Is a code ever fully debugged?
Bob: Well, good enough is good enough, I'd say. No person is perfect,
and no code is perfect.
Alice: Given that you have convinced me that a kitchen sink code is a
reasonable goal to work toward, I'm curious to hear a bit more about
how you intend to write such a code.